ACC TV Deal Changes the Conference Landscape

The Deal's Impact
For the past year questions have abound about whether or not the ACC could get a
decent tv deal during a recession and on the heals of the SEC's monster tv contract. For the moment it appeared as if the SEC was going to make the ACC look like red headed step children.

With the Big 10 seeking to become a superconference with 16 teams there has been thought that Virginia and Maryland would be targeted by the Big 10 and any combination of Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, and Virginia Tech would be targeted by the SEC. That was before the ACC's new tv contract.

With the ACC guaranteeing teams $13,000,000 per year the conference has become more attractive to teams that may be offered by another conference. Swofford struck gold.

Last year I reported that Fox was being rumored as making a lucrative offer to the ACC. They want to become major player on the college scene like they are in professional sports. With Fox making such a huge offer and with ESPN not getting the NCAA Basketball Tournament, the ACC became even more attractive. Those two things conspired in favor of the ACC which now has the third largest tv contract in college sports.

Virginia and Virginia Tech are probably 100% bound to the ACC now. Miami is now getting enough money that they are set with the conference. The 3 likely candidates to leave are Florida State, Clemson, and Maryland and even they will have alot to think about if they were offered by another conference. Tradition, 13 mil a year, and geography may be factors that keep those teams in the ACC!!!

The Future
Swofford should be proactive and prepare for the SEC/Big Ten to offer ACC schools. He already produced an awesome tv deal, it is time for him to show his power and negotiating skills and fight to keep league teams. There is probably a 50% + chance that any combination of 2 ACC schools will be targeted and offered. He should already be speaking with the following schools: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Miami, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. He should bring all of these schools together and discuss expansion and explain to each team why it would be better to remain in the conference.

Think outside the box:
Lets say FSU and Georgia Tech leave the ACC. What next??? Swofford should not just assume that UConn and Cuse means a better spot in the New York market. The Big Ten have more alumni in the city of New York than any other conference. Would the ACC get a little more exposure in New York: Yes??? Is it worth it: NO???

Look at football powers like West Virginia and an up-and-coming power in South Florida as potential replacements. Football is now the daddy and with UConn and Cuse in the league you can expect the next tv deal to be closer to the previous tv deal.

Who would leave
Clemson and Florida State are the only two schools I can think of that will say yes without much debate if they were offered by the SEC. Those schools have major reasons for joining the SEC other than just money. Bowl game alotments, national television exposure, rivalry games, and football recruiting are the reasons those schools would consider leaving for the SEC.

Other than those two leaving(If offered) I see no other team that will just say yes without debate. Georgia Tech has many people on campus that will now be happy because of the tv deal and so will Miami.

Prediction
At least one ACC school will be asked to join the SEC and they will be replaced with South Florida. I say FSU is an SEC team by the 2012-2013 school year and South Florida replaces them in the Atlantic Division the same year!!!